Thursday, June 26, 2008

Lying Business and Stock Market Statistics

Information was not considered to be an express resource when business management was born as a vocation. The stock market is different in this respect, because the Great Depression was as much about rumors as related to facts.

Sociologists recognized the power of propaganda before business school professors. Paul Virilo's writings predate any other genre of scholarly publications. His jargon of 'dromology' and the 'information bomb' has also remained exclusive.

Stock market analysts and TV business channel anchors play on the powers of incomplete information. You can trick competing investors to buy and sell stocks at wrong times by using information as a weapon. Tell the truth, but not the whole truth. This is the technology of presenting lies as facts.

What does this mean for you today?

The world stock market has climbed on June 25. Is this a sign of a bottom?

World leaders met in Riyadh last Sunday. Crude oil prices have not registered any stable decline. Neither Chavez, nor Iran have withdrawn their threats to take this resource price still higher.

China still reels under excessive precipitation, while the vast majority of India's farmers wait anxiously for moisture to save their crops. Early rains and a normal monsoon are not the same thing by far.

The worst news is that politics continues to score over economics. Major governments, like Nero, fiddle while we burn.

How can we extend this example of dromology to acquire skills of separating grain from the chaff of media stock market news?

Here is a free and easy tip: modeling and simulation confirm or deny facts presented by numbers.

Do post or email Stockway.MyView@gmail.com if you want to know more.

Disbelieve every stock market of June 25 2008 in any case.

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