Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Three Assumptions That Impact Business and Stock Investing Strategies
The subject of assumptions and their impacts on the Strategy Crafting process for Business Management and for Stock Investing is more complex and involved than I thought when I first started these posts.
Bear with me as I tarry on this subject like an airline which keeps delaying take-off. The pay-offs will make your patience worthwhile.
Do troll earlier posts if you are a first-timer here, and searching for context and relevance to your business or stock situations.
8. Human resources: all people are created equal, but some business managers matter more than others. They can shift balances between competing stock values when they change employers. Besides, they tend to hunt in groups, and one separation may trigger a veritable flood. Changes in fitments to organizational structures are amongst the most important developments for business managers and stock investors to track. Recall how private equity loves to tag their capital supports with specific individuals to remain in key executive positions.
9. Funding: this point is related to the previous one. Separations and acquisitions of highly-valued executives can make strategic and financial stock investors pull plugs on fund flows. Strategy is not affected by such developments when an enterprise depends mainly on internal cash generation and reliable lines of credit. However, stocks in closely-held corporations, and ones in early stages of the business development life-cycle, may crash overnight because of some key personal decisions. The Biotechnology & Drugs Industry is a key case in point.
10. Investor sentiment: stock market trends are rarely logical. Academics and professionals make incorrect forecasts every business and trading day. Official statements by regulators and business tycoons are sometimes dismissed out of hand by masses of investors in a stock market. Mass media is a powerful element of Dromology. Business channels on TV may affect factual reviews based on positions to which their owners, sponsors, advertisers, and anchors may be committed. Investor sentiment changes over time, and can influence the relevance of business strategy. India's apparent preference for polluting uranium over its natural sun, wind, hydrogen, gas, geo-thermal, water, and tidal resources, is a case in point.
Whew!
We are done with assumptions at last. Perhaps a wrap will be in order. This will be the aim of tomorrow's post.
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